Source: Newsmax Balkans
Photo: Newsmax Balkans
Video: Newsmax Balkans

 

Belgrade, March 19, 2026 – At a time of rising tensions in the Middle East, the European Union Agency for Asylum warns that Iran could become a new hotspot of a migration crisis, estimating that even partial destabilization of a country of nearly 90 million inhabitants could trigger one of the largest refugee waves in recent decades. On this occasion, Radoš Đurović, Director of the Asylum Center, was a guest on Newsmax Balkans television.

The Director of the Asylum Protection Center, Radoš Đurović, assessed that it is still too early to make predictions about a new large migration wave.
“It is still too early to be truly certain what will happen. Much depends on the intensity and the way the war is conducted. I remind you that only two weeks have passed since the beginning of the war, which is a very short period. However, even now there are indications that the conflict may escalate further and only in the longer term affect the movement of people,” said Đurović.

According to him, in the first two weeks of the conflict there was a sharp rise in the number of internally displaced persons in Iran.

“According to UNHCR data, about three million people have already been internally displaced, which is a big jump compared to the initial few hundred thousand who were displaced in the first week. That is a bad indicator. People from Tehran and larger cities are leaving, trying to stay with relatives in villages, isolated areas, less populated parts of the country, especially toward the north,” Đurović noted.

He emphasized that the flow of information from Iran is limited, but that available data still allow certain assessments.

“The lack of information is a major problem, but you can still make some assessments based on what comes through. Some information manages to break through blockades and reach the media and social networks in different ways. Likewise, diplomatic and consular services still function to some extent, and they also collect and deliver information,” he said.

Đurović also warned about the possibility of migration being misused for wartime purposes.

“This is already a diluted scenario, unfortunately, seen in the war in Ukraine, but also earlier, where a population is pushed or allowed and encouraged to leave a certain territory, in order to exert indirect pressure on neighboring regions or the opposing side,” Đurović said.

Speaking about the potential development of the situation, he stressed that Iranians are not currently inclined to leave the country en masse.

“When we talk about current statistics, we cannot yet speak of refugee flows. We do not have any significant changes in daily border crossings compared to the period before the war. In many ways Iran should be viewed as a specific entity, with its own particularities compared to other regions and crises that have occurred, such as Syria, Libya, and others, so parallels should not be drawn too quickly. Definitely, Iranians are not inclined to easily leave their country and the places where they live. People do not want to abandon everything they have built throughout their lives; they do not want to become refugees,” he explained.

According to him, the key trigger for a large migration wave would be the collapse of institutions, infrastructure, and the absence of basic living conditions.

“If the state stopped functioning at the level of its institutions, if daily life in Iran could not continue, and if civilian infrastructure were affected and destroyed, Iran would find itself in a very difficult situation. Iran is not a country rich in food; it struggles to maintain resources for basic functioning for such a large population. If supply chains were broken, all this would force people to move. If there were a complete collapse of the system, meaning no police, no army, no administrative apparatus, that would cause major upheavals and almost certainly lead to a refugee crisis. In such a scenario it is very likely, and now we enter the field of geopolitics, that neighboring countries would intervene to stabilize the region, which would truly represent a serious challenge for the region and beyond,” Đurović said.

Regarding Europe, he believes the situation is different than in 2015.

“From 2015 until today the EU has made many efforts and used financial, political, and other instruments to avoid such a scenario. It is more than clear that, in the event of an influx from Iran into Turkey, and then from Turkey toward Europe, Europe would take all measures to stop such a wave, very likely including physical barriers and force. Turkey is at this moment Europe’s partner, the country everyone is watching, and the first stop in case of escalation of a refugee wave. In that sense, Turkey is already preparing, and the EU and Europe support it in building capacities so that, if migration occurs, it would be slowed on Turkish territory. However, it is never certain how Turkey, a serious country, would react if overwhelmed by large numbers of people. The question is whether it would act similarly to 2015, when it pressured Europe and obtained political and financial concessions. There is always a balance, two sides of the scale, and it is difficult to predict what will actually happen. Europe, however, is doing everything to strengthen Turkey and financially support its reception of migrants. Turkey has also built a concrete wall along more than 300 km of its border with Iran. Turkey has instruments to try, by using force, to stop the influx of people,” Đurović said.

Speaking about the impact on Serbia and the region, Đurović stated that the Balkans could again become a transit route only after reception in Turkey weakens and migration is halted in Turkey and the Aegean area, but not necessarily that migration waves would flood the Balkans.

“There is no fear that this could currently affect us, but in a situation where a large number of people from Turkey tried to reach the European Union, namely Greece and Bulgaria, the Balkan route would become active. We do not have to expect a scenario of mass exodus. It is enough that, through smuggling networks, people slowly leave Turkey and then continuously, for years, pass through these areas. So even if an undesirable scenario occurs, it is unlikely that migration waves would flood the Balkans, but it is more than certain that the Balkans would serve as a corridor toward Western Europe,” Đurović concluded.

You can watch the full program at the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qj8nK63N9Xg