Source: Euronews Serbia
Photo: Euronews Serbia

 

Belgrade, March 5, 2026 – Radoš Đurović, Director of the Asylum Protection Center, was a guest on Euronews Serbia, where he assessed that in the short term a repeat of the mass migration scenario seen in 2015 is not expected, despite intensifying conflicts in Iran and Lebanon.

“For now there are no indications that a mass migration wave will hit the Balkans or Europe. At present we only have internal movements in Lebanon and Iran – in Tehran more than 100,000 people have left the city, and in Lebanon about 80,000 people from the southern regions. Iran has closed its borders and is not allowing its citizens to leave the country, so migration is mostly within Iran itself,” said Đurović.

He explained that there are factors which could change this situation, such as the intensity of military actions, targeting of infrastructure or nuclear facilities, and the attitudes of neighboring countries toward refugees.

Compared to 2015, Đurović emphasized that the European Union is now better prepared.

“Europe is ready not to allow a repeat of the 2015 scenario. Intensive work is being done on border controls, and Türkiye and neighboring countries have the capacity to take on the first burden of any potential migration. If displacement occurs, it will most likely be in those countries, not here,” said Đurović.

A particular problem is the Afghan community in Iran, numbering around four million people.

“In the last six months Iran has returned more than a million Afghans to their country. Also, conflicts in the Kurdish regions of Iran could cause additional internal movements, but the question is whether those people would reach Europe,” Đurović stressed.

As for Serbia, the situation is stable. Around 100–200 people are currently staying in reception centers, while a larger number move outside the system with the help of smugglers.

In January, about 1,000 people passed through Serbia, which is significantly fewer compared to last year when the number was around 35,000, said Đurović.

He warned that escalation of conflicts in the Middle East could create a long-term migration wave.

“If there is greater destabilization of the region, this area could become a new source of a refugee crisis that might last an entire decade. For now we have no reason to panic, but the situation must be carefully monitored,” Đurović emphasized.

You can watch the full program at the following link: https://www.euronews.rs/svet/fokus/213343/durovic-ne-ocekuje-se-migracioni-talas-sa-bliskog-istoka/vest